🏡💚 Scenario planning: climate and housing on the ballot

November 1, 2024

You don’t need me or anyone else telling you there’s a lot at stake on November 5th. With each passing day, the election increasingly eclipses all other policy and political thoughts, and yet we often continue planning work as usual for the days and weeks afterward. It’s an anxious and strange time.

I also know many of you are doing some form of scenario planning. Though I won’t be able to go into nearly as much depth here, I do think it’s worth considering the conditions we might be facing with different election outcomes, and laying out some of the likely arenas of struggle.  

The IRA under Trump

It should not surprise you that Trump is not a fan of the Green New Deal. He made that more than clear a few months ago when he said, “To further defeat inflation, my plan will terminate the Green New Deal, which I call the Green New Scam” (suffice it to say, we will not be renaming our coalition in agreement). But it’s more than just empty rhetoric. This comes as part of a campaign promise to rescind all unspent money from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).  

While we should scoff at the equivocation of the Inflation Reduction Act and a Green New Deal, in many ways the IRA is the culmination of the initial organizing demands that were sparked by calls for a Green New Deal. And although it is the largest federal climate investment in history, the IRA has brought a lot of challenges and exposed major gaps in the capacity of communities to translate its funding potential into real projects. But it is far better to organize within those conditions than the alternative.

The Biden administration has been rushing to try to get money out the door, but a significant amount remains unspent. Back in April, an analysis by POLITICO found that of the investments on climate, energy and infrastructure included in the IRA, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and the CHIPS Act, less than 17 percent of the $1.1 trillion had been spent. And of the $145 billion in direct spending on energy and climate programs in the IRA, only $60 billion had been announced. More spending has been allocated since then, but a ton of money is still on the table.

The declaration to claw back unspent money also casts enormous uncertainty on projects that might be banking on that funding to come through. For example, the direct pay provision of the IRA was celebrated as a way for non-profits and public entities to access and benefits from clean energy tax credits. But that funding is only given after a project is completed and come online. As a result, many projects have stalled as developers await the results of the election.

Will Kamala deliver on climate?

If Kamala wins, it’s safe to assume that the investments made under Biden will be safe. But will there be anything else?

Her platform calls for “tackling the climate crisis,” but in an election low on policy details, the platform is still depressingly devoid of any climate policies or actions she will prioritize as president. There’s a lot of concern that the general feeling on the federal level is ‘we already did climate’ and that even a Democratic administration and Congress will mostly rest on their laurels. And Harris hasn’t exactly been the toughest on fossil fuels on the campaign trail, at times touting that she was the “tie-breaking vote to open up more fracking leases.”

Obviously, it will be much better to try to push a President Harris to do something on climate, rather than being on full defense under a President Trump. But it’s no slam dunk that Kamala will be a climate champion, and we should be prepared to fight either way.

Will Kamala deliver on housing?

In contrast, Harris has been much more vocal on housing issues and housing policy details while on the campaign trail. The cornerstones of her platform are the construction of 3 million new housing units, actions for creating a fairer rental market, and $25,000 in downpayment support for first-time homeowners.

There’s a lot to unpack here, and the emphasis has definitely been more on housing supply and homeownership (rather than say, tenant protections and homeless services), but there are a lot of things to like in the platform. She talks about going after corporate landlords, expanding rental assistance, and capping unfair rent increases.

Harris also proposes a $40 billion housing innovation fund that would “empower local governments to fund local solutions to build housing.” I might just be hearing what I want to hear, but it sure sounds like that offers a lot of potential for funding to support green social housing.

Statewide Bond Bonanza

In California, we continue to anticipate state budget deficits. The last two years have already resulted in cutting billions of dollars from climate programs and environmental  justice priorities, and many fear this trend will continue into next year.

The climate bond (in the form of Proposition 4) was announced as a solution to that, albeit a band-aid solution. Though all of our priorities are not included in the bond funding allocations, it will provided a badly needed infusion of funding that can be influenced and shaped in the years to come.

So far, polling on Prop 4 has looked pretty favorable, with about 60% approval among likely voters. The school bond looks much more up in the air, with polling support at 52%, showing how voters are eager for climate action (yesterday, POLITICO had a newsletter talking about how the school bond proponents have also been trying to lean into climate messaging).

And then there’s Prop 5, which won’t provide immediate funding, but which would open up the door for much more local bonds to support affordable housing and public infrastructure in the future. Prop 5 is polling right around 50%, and could use an all-hands-on-deck moment to try to get it over the finish line.

Politics of Resentment and Oppression

Trump’s administration and candidacy have always been built on politics of resentment. He promises to punish groups that he and his supporters scapegoat for systemic problems (e.g. immigrants, BIPOC communities, poor people), and he adds his own brand of personal vendettas to boot. Trump flagrantly displayed this during his presidential term, including at least 3 occasions when he threatened to withhold disaster aid to places he considered as political opposition, including after the deadly California wildfires in 2018.  

This has widespread and terrifying implications for so many people, and it threatens extremely hostile organizing conditions. And I know that many of you are feeling the full weight of that in these days leading up to an election where our safety, our democracy, and our planet are at risk. All I’ll say here is: my heartfelt and deepest wishes for everyone to take care of yourselves and each other, good luck to us all, and either way - the fight goes on.

Source: CarbonBrief

For those of you still waiting to fill out your ballot, a friendly reminder of our 2024 ballot endorsements and proposition guide. If you haven’t already, please check it out!

See our endorsement guide here

WHAT WE’RE READING

• Apartment remodeling can lead to LA renters losing their homes. The City Council just voted to stop these ‘renovictions’ (LAist) - huge congrats to folks at SAJE and everyone else who helped lead on this victory down in LA!!

• DataAE and Xavier Vendrell balance Barcelona housing block on steep site (Dezeen) - fresh example of social housing project in Barcelona

• How Kamala Harris and Donald Trump differ starkly on energy and climate (CarbonBrief)

• The Emerging Spectrum of Government-Led and Publicly-Owned Housing Development Models (NYU Furman Center)

Feel free to reply any time! I always enjoy hearing from people and getting any feedback/questions/additional thoughts.

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