🏡💚 Fires in LA, a convergence of crises
January 10, 2025
I know almost everyone reading this likely has friends, family, or colleagues that have been threatened or impacted by the fires in Los Angeles. Some of you have been directly impacted yourselves.
For a newsletter that is focused on the intersection of climate and housing, it is impossible to write about anything else than the destruction in LA. Yet, there is already so much coverage of what’s happening that I’m not sure if there’s anything new or novel that I have to say.
Still, there is such a wide range of issues at play that I think are worth trying to weave together so that we can try to hold the complexity and grief all at once. Disasters like this break through and expose the weak points in our systems. And so often, while we are still mourning and responding to those in need, there are forces who will seek to take advantage of the moment for their own gain and profit.
Here’s what we know:
As of this writing, 10 people have been killed by the fires, and over 10,000 homes and buildings have been destroyed. There are 6 separate active fires, with the ongoing threat of new flareups as winds continue over the next few days. Many thousands of people have evacuated their homes, unsure if they will ever return to them.
A CLIMATE DISASTER: As with most climate disasters, the impact of climate change on the wildfires must be inferred rather than directly attributed. We know these areas in Los Angeles are vulnerable to fire. But it’s important to be clear that a convergence of climate factors create much more destructive conditions. Southern California has experienced abnormally dry conditions over the past 6 months (even for a region that is already very dry and drought-prone). Downtown Los Angeles has received just 0.14 inches of rain since October, despite entering what is usually the wet season. Warmer springs and summers dry out the vegetation, leaving more fuel stock where fire more easily and quickly spreads.
THE WILDLIFE-URBAN INTERFACE: We also know these areas are already very prone to wildfire without the exacerbating effects of climate change. The Santa Ana winds, which blow dry and hot air down the mountains toward the coast, are a common occurrence in LA. This has fostered a chaparral ecosystem that is adapted to regular burns. Our built environment has not similarly adapted. As Mike Davis wrote in 1998, “Malibu, meanwhile, is the wildfire capital of North America and, possibly, the world. Fire here has a relentless staccato rhythm, syncopated by landslides and floods. The rugged 22-mile-long coastline is scourged, on the average, by a large fire (one thousand acres plus) every two and a half years, and the entire surface area of the western Santa Monica Mountains has been burnt three times over the twentieth century.”
Even though “urban” is literally in the “wildlife-urban interface” (WUI) term, we can still make the mistake of mostly considering wildfire-prone areas to be in the more rural and forested parts of the state. A 2022 study found that 45.13% of California's total housing, are located within the WUI.
The LA fires will undoubtedly raise discussions about where and if we should rebuild — discussions that are very difficult to have in the aftermath of a disaster. But we know these areas have high risk of repeated disaster, and while the fires of course most impacts those who live there, those risks and associated costs are also spread across all of us through our insurance and emergency response system.
AN INSURANCE CRISIS: The debate over home insurance policies was already a hot topic. This disaster brings all of that to a head. Last summer, thousands of insurance policies in Pacific Palisades and impacted areas were dropped by State Farm. As a result, homeowners increasingly shifted to the FAIR Plan, California’s insurance of last resort.
The Palisades Fire could become the costliest wildfire in history due to the number of structures destroyed and the relative cost of those homes (the Pacific Palisades neighborhood is estimated to have a median home value of $3.1 million). This will put enormous stress on the state’s already very fragile insurance market. While this is not expected to drive the FAIR Plan to insolvency, it will push this system to the limit.
CLIMATE BUDGET CUTS: Today is also when Governor Newsom will release more details on the annual January proposed budget. While expecting a “modest surplus,” it remains to be seen if any funding will backfill the over $4 billion in cuts to the climate budget that were enacted last year. While this helped to spur the climate bond, which passed as Proposition 4 in November, the cuts to wildfire funding look especially concerning in the wake of this week’s events.
We also know that the state continues to subsidize the oil and gas industry that is contributing to climate change. The Climate Center released a report this week about how the Water’s Edge tax loophole amounts to a up to $146 million annually in giveaways to multinational oil and gas companies and other corporations. It is hard to look at the current wildfires in LA, the previous cuts to the climate budget, and the known tax breaks to fossil fuel companies, and not see that something is broken. As Governor Newsom and many others like to say, the budget is a reflection of our values. We’ll get a closer look at those values later today.
At the end of last year, we also saw New York pass legislation to hold polluters accountable for the damage they’ve caused through a climate change superfund. Similar efforts have previously stalled in California, but we’ll be looking to see (and actively supporting) if this provides a boost to that legislation in the upcoming session.
A NEW ADMINISTRATION: The Biden administration announced the federal government will cover “100 percent of all the costs” to fight the fires ravaging the Los Angeles area. But with him set to leave office in 10 days, it is very unclear if Trump will maintain that promise. On the campaign trail, former President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened to cut off financial disaster recovery aid to California as part of his personal vendetta against perceived rivals. These threats will be immediately put to the test as California works to recover from this disaster as he begins his new term. While Trump hasn’t claimed he would do that in the case of the LA fires, he has made already made some controversial (and inaccurate) claims on social media about Newsom not allowing “clean fresh water to FLOW INTO CALIFORNIA.”
DISASTER CAPITALISM: By now, most of us are very familiar with the concept of disaster capitalism and the shock doctrine. When disaster strikes, private capital quickly mobilizes to take advantage. We’ve famously witnessed this through the privatization of schools in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, and in the rapacious private-equity buy ups of foreclosed homes during the 2008 financial crisis. The 2023 Maui fires in Lahaina brought real fears of disaster capitalism over water rights and community rebuilding.
It feels crass to already look ahead while people are still actively fighting fires and evacuating their homes. And yet we know that in addition to immediate relief, the question will quickly turn to how we recover and rebuild. We will soon need answers that ensure relief for those who need it and investments in long-term solutions.
Source: LA Times
WHAT WE’RE READING
Mutual Aid LA Resource List - comprehensive list of mutual aid resources
How Big Oil Made It Harder to Fight the Los Angeles Fires (Jacobin)
Housing for the People - How Local Governments Are Building Social Housing Solutions For Public Good – new report by PolicyLink, Local Progress Impact Lab, and PowerSwitch Action
‘They look like homes for rich people’: why Britain should look to Europe for its council housing revolution (The Guardian)
Feel free to reply any time! I always enjoy hearing from people and getting any feedback/questions/additional thoughts.
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